Fall Real Estate Market Report | Greater Las Vegas
September 2025 Market ReportPrescindia (Cindi) MischSeptember 22, 2025
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As of fall 2025, the Las Vegas luxury real estate market is trending toward a more balanced, buyer-friendly environment after several years of favoring sellers. An influx of new inventory has led to longer selling times and price reductions, particularly in the highest-end properties. Steady demand remains, especially in the mid-luxury range, driven by out-of-state buyers attracted to Nevada's lack of state income tax.
Market overview
Key trends for the Las Vegas luxury market, where luxury is generally defined as properties over $1 million, include:
Rising inventory: The number of million-dollar listings has surged, providing more options for buyers.
Listings priced at $1 million or more increased 42% year-over-year in July 2025.
In the ultra-luxury segment ($10 million+), inventory rose by 34% in the first quarter of 2025.
Softer prices at the top: Fierce competition among sellers has led to more aggressive price adjustments, especially in the highest tiers.
In July 2025, prices for homes over $2 million dropped 18.3% year-over-year.
For the top 1% of luxury homes (starting around $5.8 million), prices were down 15.2% annually as of July 2025.
Longer time on market: With more inventory available, properties are taking longer to sell. The median time on the market for million-dollar listings in July 2025 was 64 days, a five-day increase from the previous year.
Continued demand: Despite the shift in market dynamics, demand remains steady, particularly for mid-range luxury properties ($1 million–$5 million). Sales activity in the ultra-luxury market has been more inconsistent.
Buyer behavior: High-end buyers are becoming more selective, with savvy negotiators taking advantage of increasing inventory and longer time on market.
Real Estate lending report federal housing market projections.
Performance by price tier
Data from market reports in March and June 2025 show varied activity within the luxury market:
$1M–$3M: This segment continues to see strong demand and competitive conditions.
Inventory: Up 41% year-over-year as of June 2025.
Sales: Relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 2% in June 2025 compared to a year prior.
Median price: Held steady around $1.332 million as of June 2025.
$3M–$5M: This price range has seen mixed activity, with slower sales growth and some price shifts.
Inventory: Increased by 22% year-over-year in June 2025.
Sales: Slowed in June 2025, down 11% compared to a year prior.
Median price: Down 6% year-over-year to $3.775 million in June 2025.
$5M–$10M: This market segment has been more volatile, with increased inventory and significant price adjustments.
Inventory: Rose by 32% year-over-year in June 2025.
Sales: Dropped 71% in August 2024, although September 2024 showed a slight recovery with a 33% climb.
Median price: Down 18% year-over-year in September 2024.
$10M+: The ultra-luxury segment is highly exclusive and has faced headwinds.
Inventory: Increased notably by 33% year-over-year in June 2025.
Sales: Remained low and sporadic in March 2025, with no sales recorded in May 2025.
Prices: Experienced a 15.2% annual drop in July 2025.
Key takeaways for buyers and sellers
For buyers: The shift toward a more balanced market creates opportunities, especially in the higher-end price ranges where inventory is up and sellers may be more willing to negotiate. This is a favorable time to be a selective and strategic buyer.
For sellers: It is crucial to price properties competitively and strategically. The days of guaranteed multiple offers and high prices are over, especially for properties over $5 million. Well-presented and appropriately priced homes, particularly in the $1 million–$3 million range, continue to attract strong interest.
For investors: The luxury market still holds appeal for both primary and investment properties, fueled by Nevada's tax advantages and the continued interest of out-of-state buyers from California and other high-tax states.
LENDING:
Major real estate lending reports from federal agencies and industry groups project a slowdown in home price appreciation for 2025, with mortgage rates likely remaining elevated in the mid-to-high 6% range
. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not directly forecast mortgage rates, their monetary policy and financial stability assessments play a crucial role in the housing market outlook.
Federal Reserve and housing market assessment
The Fed's actions and analysis of economic risks influence the lending environment:
Rate Cuts and Mortgage Rates: Following a September 2025 rate cut, the Fed has signaled a less aggressive path for future reductions than previously anticipated. While a drop in the federal funds rate does not directly translate to lower long-term fixed mortgage rates, it can trend them in that direction. Economic forecasts from late 2024 and mid-2025 reflect increased caution regarding the pace of rate decreases.
Inflation and Uncertainty: Persistent inflation remains a primary risk to financial stability and has contributed to higher interest rates. The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on inflation trends and other economic data, creating continued volatility and uncertainty for lenders and homebuyers.
Financial Stability Concerns: The April 2025 Financial Stability Report notes that residential real estate prices are still high relative to rents, raising concerns about potential overvaluation. However, the report also acknowledges that conservative lending standards today differ from those leading up to the 2008 crisis, mitigating some risk.
FHFA and home price projections
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home price trends and reported the following for 2025:
Slowing Appreciation: The FHFA House Price Index showed a 2.9% year-over-year increase in prices between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025, a slower rate than previous years.
Regional Variation: Significant price differences exist across the country. In Q2 2025, some states saw annual appreciation above 6%, while others, including the District of Columbia, experienced price declines.
Seasonal Trends: The monthly index for May and June 2025 showed slight price dips, indicating a market slowdown from the robust gains of prior years.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) lending forecast
The MBA provides detailed lending projections for the mortgage industry, with revised forecasts throughout 2025 reflecting economic shifts:
Moderated Originations: Earlier optimistic forecasts for 2025 mortgage origination volumes were revised downward during the year as rate cut expectations cooled. The May 2025 forecast projected a total origination volume of $1.397 trillion for the year.
Market Challenges: The MBA anticipates that continued high mortgage rates, declining consumer confidence, and a slowing economy will dampen lending activity, though purchase originations are still expected to slightly increase.
Delinquency Risk: The January 2025 outlook noted a modest risk of increased delinquencies due to the slowing economy and rising homeownership costs, including insurance and property taxes.
Market dynamics and lending environment
Several factors are shaping the lending landscape:
The "Lock-in" Effect: Many current homeowners have low mortgage rates from before 2022, creating a disincentive to sell. This continues to restrain the supply of existing homes for sale.
Affordability Issues: The combination of high prices and elevated mortgage rates means that renting remains significantly cheaper than buying for many Americans, suppressing buyer demand.
Resilient New Construction: Homebuilders have maintained sales through incentives like mortgage rate buydowns, but overall single-family starts have moderated due to rising inventories.
Inventory Shift: Despite the "lock-in" effect, the inventory of homes for sale has been rising year-over-year throughout 2025, offering buyers more options and reducing competitive pressures.
This information may include mistakes. For financial advice, consult a professional. Learn more
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